I don't know, I'm also confused a bit with the fact that they're apparently doing only half of the 3rd book this season and putting the second half in season 4. Because doesn't Jon become LC at the end of book 3? Or at least pretty close to the end, anyway? In any case, some of the things that happen in the second half of this season (like the bear scene) seem to happen way past the halfway point in the books. Or maybe I'm just remembering it wrong? But yeah, I feel that Joffrey will die next season, not now.